July 17, 2006
They Wanted War, They Got It
Ok, now after whole years of low-intensity conflict Hizballah* stepped way over the line and gave Israel the casus belli to go in and kick some ass - just after Hamas did the same.
Israel also decided to hold the whole nation-state of Lebanon accountable and destroyed targets also outside the Hizballah-occupied area. Whether this is a winning strategy or not, will be seen.
Sheikh Nasrallah (this allah seems to be a recurring theme...) stated... well, the same typical Arab blustering: this will be total war, it's just the beginning and so on. But up to now, it seems that Hizballah and Lebanon are the ones getting beaten up. Though Israel took some casualties, and the people living within range of the Hizballah rockets are having a pretty hard time.
However, besides these rockets (happily supplied by Syria and Iran) and mortars, Hizballah doesn't have much more to throw into the fight - especially after the IAF pounded the transport infrastructure in Lebanon. While Israel has air force, navy, artillery, armor, mechanized infantry, logistics... indeed, Israeli ground troops are reported to be in Lebanon now.
If the "international community" does not idiotically step in (Prodi, I'm talking about you too) forcing an esecrable ceasefire, Israel can obtain a decisive victory against Hizballah - and in this way cut Iran a bit down to size. Of course Iran wouldn't love it and there is some risk of escalation. Less worse to escalate now, than when Iran will have nuclear weapons, however.
Further reading: Wretchard (2, 3), Winds of Change.
* I use Hizballah rather than the more common Hezbollah because it's worth to note the presence of Allah in the very name of this jihadi organization.
Israel also decided to hold the whole nation-state of Lebanon accountable and destroyed targets also outside the Hizballah-occupied area. Whether this is a winning strategy or not, will be seen.
Sheikh Nasrallah (this allah seems to be a recurring theme...) stated... well, the same typical Arab blustering: this will be total war, it's just the beginning and so on. But up to now, it seems that Hizballah and Lebanon are the ones getting beaten up. Though Israel took some casualties, and the people living within range of the Hizballah rockets are having a pretty hard time.
However, besides these rockets (happily supplied by Syria and Iran) and mortars, Hizballah doesn't have much more to throw into the fight - especially after the IAF pounded the transport infrastructure in Lebanon. While Israel has air force, navy, artillery, armor, mechanized infantry, logistics... indeed, Israeli ground troops are reported to be in Lebanon now.
If the "international community" does not idiotically step in (Prodi, I'm talking about you too) forcing an esecrable ceasefire, Israel can obtain a decisive victory against Hizballah - and in this way cut Iran a bit down to size. Of course Iran wouldn't love it and there is some risk of escalation. Less worse to escalate now, than when Iran will have nuclear weapons, however.
Further reading: Wretchard (2, 3), Winds of Change.
* I use Hizballah rather than the more common Hezbollah because it's worth to note the presence of Allah in the very name of this jihadi organization.
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